Bitcoin struggles to make a return to higher levels despite geopolitical uncertainty striking the Eurozone.
Bitcoin (BTC) drifted near $21,000 on the Aug. 22 Wall Street open as the new week began without a rebound.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
European commodity surge hammers euro
The pair put in fresh multi-week lows under $20,800 over the weekend, subsequently staging a modest relief bounce to circle $21,200 at the time of writing.
Anxiousness over European markets and the upcoming United States Federal Reserve Jackson Hole symposium contributed to a downbeat mood on risk assets. The S&P 500 lost 1.8% within two hours of opening, while the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 2.2%.
In Europe, gas and electricity prices surged again over fears that supplies from Russia could be throttled harder and sooner than expected.
OOPS! German benchmark electricity price jumped >25% on Monday to pass €700 per megawatt-hour for the first time. The level is about 14 times the seasonal average over the past five years. pic.twitter.com/gMQZkk7ncB
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) August 22, 2022
As a result, the euro fell below parity with the U.S. dollar for the first time since July.
“The end of summer sees the euro back under pressure, partly because the dollar is bid and partly because the Damoclean sword hanging over the European economy isn’t going away,” Kit Juckes, a foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, wrote in a note quoted by Bloomberg.
As Cointelegraph reported, the euro was already facing multiple headwinds, with inflation in the Eurozone still climbing in July in contrast to the United States.
Below 200-week moving average “bad for bulls”
Analyzing the situation, on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators nonetheless had a silver lining for traders on shorter timeframes.
The weekend dip had still seen the market preserve lows from July, it noted, meaning that the 2022 “bear market rally,” which had taken BTC/USD above $25,000, could still make a return.
Nonetheless, as long as Bitcoin traded below its critical 200-week moving average (WMA) near $23,000, the situation favored bears.
Defending the LL means the Bear Market Rally could regain momentum if we get some good economic data this week, but a look at the #BTC weekly chart shows signs that any potential rally will be short lived. Losing the 200 WMA is bad for bulls. If 50 and 100 WMAs cross it’s worse. pic.twitter.com/j19Vp7SkiS
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) August 22, 2022
A further post showed data from the order book of major exchange Binance, with some of the largest-volume whales attempting to clear a sell wall immediately above spot price.
BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter
Adopting a similarly upbeat view on the long term, trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile argued that buying BTC below $35,000 still represented a “bargain.”
The area around that price level represents a zone of major exchange volume, one which will figure as a major hurdle should spot price action head higher.
In 2015, #BTC bottomed 547 days before the Halving
In 2018, $BTC bottomed 517 days before the Halving (discount March 2020 crash)
If Bitcoin is going to bottom 517-547 days before the upcoming April 2024 Halving…
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 22, 2022
Additional research from Rekt Capital nonetheless predicted a macro cycle low coming in Q4 if BTC/USD were to repeat the timing of previous macro lows from 2015 and 2018.
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