Another surprise inflation increase could make things “ugly” for crypto markets, one trader warns, with hours left before the CPI release.
Bitcoin (BTC) hit multi-day lows into Aug. 10 as crypto traders braced for impact with fresh United States inflation data.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Trader: Market “could get ugly” if CPI keeps rising
Bullish momentum had evaporated during the day prior, and the mood among traders was firmly risk-off as markets awaited the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) readout.
Covering July, the data was due at 8.30am Eastern time Aug. 10, with expectations demanding it show that U.S. inflation had already peaked.
“CPI prints have been pretty pitoval for BTC price action,” Blockware lead insights analyst William Clemente wrote in part of a tweet about the event, adding that CPI would form a “big day” for crypto.
An accompanying chart showed the impact of previous CPI readouts on BTC/USD.
BTC/USD annotated chart showing CPI events. Source: William Clemente/ Twitter
Trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile gave a CPI reading of 9.1 or above as “bearish” for price action against current expectations of 8.7.
CPI Guide for today in my opinion:
8.7-9.1 Neutral probably slightly bearish
Core CPI YoY
More thoughts below
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) August 10, 2022
“The market has been pumping on the idea of inflation having likely peaked the past month,” he wrote in a dedicated thread.
“If it doesn’t get that confirmation today I think it could get ugly short term as the peak will likely be moved forward another 1-2 months. Which likely means a delayed Fed pivot as well.”
Macro analyst Alex Krueger was more dismissive, meanwhile, calling CPI a “little number” while acknowledging its impact on risk asset trends.
BTC price still far from bullish pivot zone
BTC price action thus stayed wedged in a familiar range with classic support and resistance levels still in play.
BTC/USD circled $23,000 at the time of writing after dropping more than $1,000 the day prior.
Daan Crypto Trades flagged $24,300 as a crucial level to break and hold for Bitcoin to “fly,” with $21,000 a potential target in the event of a breakdown.
$BTC Testing a critical support level here with the 4H 200EMA coming in below it at $22.7K.
If we’d get a full on breakdown then the logical target would be low $21Ks.
Break and hold above $24.3K and we’ll fly.
Those are my levels to watch for the time being. pic.twitter.com/UrDmxuebGf
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) August 9, 2022
On-chain monitoring resource Whalemap meanwhile continued its analysis of whale buy and sell levels.
“$BTC is back to the whale accumulation area,” the Whalemap team summarized on Aug. 9.
“Prices where whales accumulate usually act as support or resistance for price action of Bitcoin. Question is, will we get a bounce again or go deeper.”Bitcoin whale wallet inflows annotated chart. Source: Whalemap/ Twitter
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