The relatively good times could continue next month, one prediction says after July manages to reverse the worst of the 2022 crypto downturn.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped volatility on the last weekend of July as the monthly close drew near.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
200-week moving average in focus for July close
The pair had benefitted from macro tailwinds across risk assets in the second half of the week, these including a flush finish for United States equities. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index gained 4.1% and 4.6% over the week, respectively.
With off-speak trading apt to spark volatile conditions into weekly and monthly closes thanks to thinner liquidity, however, analysts warned that anything could happen between now and July 31.
“Just gonna sit back and watch the market up until the weekly close like always,” Josh Rager summarized.
“Hard to get into any trades seriously though they may be a few outliers in current market condition that continue to perform well over the weekend.”
Others focused on the significance of current spot price levels, which lay above the key 200-week moving average (MA) at $22,800. Finishing the week above that trendline would be a first for Bitcoin since June.
#BTC is very close to performing a Weekly Close above the 200-week MA
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 29, 2022
Adopting a conservative short-term view, however, popular trader Roman called for a return to at least $23,000 thanks to “overbought” conditions.
So far seeing deviation for the potential double top call from yesterday.
PA – vol down / price up is bearish. MACD rolling over. RSI overbought.
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) July 29, 2022
At 45/100, the Index was officially in “neutral” territory on the day.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
Bullish continuation slated for Au
Looking to next month, meanwhile, Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe said that stocks performance would continue to provide fertile conditions for a crypto rebound.
“Sounds like we’re going to get that continuation in August, including with crypto and Bitcoin,” part of a Twitter update on July 29 stated.
“Summer relief rally it is!”
August was set to be a quiet month for U.S. macro triggers, with the Federal Reserve not due to alter policy in a scheduled manner until September.
The risk of advancing inflation nonetheless remained, with the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) print due August 10. This week, the European Union reported its highest-ever monthly inflation estimate for the Eurozone at 8.9%.
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