The rally across top Bitcoin mining stocks could trap bulls as BTC price sentiment remains gloomy.
Bitcoin (BTC) mining companies have suffered in 2022 due to the crypto bear market. Nonetheless, their stocks collectively saw a sharp rebound on July 6, raising hopes that investors have started to buy the dips.
One of the intraday winners was Bitfarms (TSE: BITF), which surged by over 24% to close at $1.29.
MARA, CORZ, BITF, and CBIT daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin miners’ revenue down 70% from peak
The rallies come as a breather in what has been a bad year for mining stocks. A nearly 60% year-to-date plunge in the BTC price and a rise in “mining difficulty” have pushed the miners’ daily revenues lower by over 70% from their November 2021 peak of $62 million.
Bitcoin daily miner revenue versus difficulty. Source: CoinMetrics/Arcane Research
The outcome is bad for all the mining stocks, including the ones mentioned above. For instance, BITF is still down 86% from its peak in pre-market trading on July 6 despite a 24% rebound in the previous session.
Similarly, MARA, CORZ, and CBIT have been trading 80%–93% below their record highs in November 2021, showing a far deeper drawdown than Bitcoin, whose price has dropped 67% in the same timeframe.
Mining stocks vs. BTC/USD (blue) daily price chart. Source: TradingView
“Short covering” to trap bulls?
Bitcoin mining stocks risk further downside, however, given a potentially lengthy bear market led by macro risks.
Thus, the sharp rebound witnessed across the Bitcoin mining stocks could be due to “short covering” or investors buying the dip, according to Balmy Investor, a pseudonymous analyst.
Quick June observations. Working on Q2 report with @hashrateindex. ☘️
— Balmy_investor ⛏️ (@balmy_investor) July 6, 2022
Covering shorts involves buying back the borrowed underlying asset to close a short position at a profit or loss. That typically leads to frequent rebound moves, especially during a bear market, where bulls are at risk of being trapped.
For instance, the MARA stock chart below shows several cases of short-lived upside runs during an overall bearish cycle.
MARA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, “oversold” bounces are typically triggered when an asset’s relative strength index (RSI) slips below 30, which many traditional technical analysts consider a buy signal.
The RSI readings of Marathon Digital Asset Holdings, Core Scientific, Cathedra Bitcoin, and Bitfarms were below 30 as of July 6.
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