BTC and altcoins met resistance at a key moving average, leading traders to wonder whether the current pullback is a lower support test, or proof that bears are still in control.
Bitcoin (BTC) has made a tentative start to the month of June, suggesting that bears have not gone into hibernation just yet. Although Bitcoin is trading nearly 55% off its all-time high of $69,000, whales and institutions remain cautious and have not jumped into the market with gusto according to BlockTrends analyst Caue Oliveira.
According to CryptoQuant contributor Venturefounder, if Bitcoin repeats the historical patterns seen after the previous halving cycles, then a bottom may be formed between $14,000 and $21,000 in the next six months. Thereafter, Bitcoin may chop around the $28,000 to $40,000 range for a large part of the next year and be around $40,000 during the halving.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Crypto’s bear market has not stopped Goldman Sachs from exploring the possibility of integrating its derivatives products into FTX.US derivatives offerings. This suggests that the investment bank expects derivatives demand to pick up in the future.
Has Bitcoin started a bottoming formation? Is the short-term downtrend in altcoins over? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin reached the overhead resistance at $32,659 on May 31 but the bulls could not clear this hurdle. The Doji candlestick pattern on May 31 indicates uncertainty among the buyers and sellers.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
This uncertainty resolved in favor of the bears on June 1 and they pulled the price below the 20-day exponential moving average ($30,741). If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the next stop could be $28,630. The buyers are expected to defend this level with all their might.
If the price rebounds off $28,600, the BTC/USDT pair could again attempt a rally to $32,659. If that happens, the pair may consolidate between these two levels for a few days.
The next trending move could begin if the price breaks above or below the range. If the price soars above $32,659, the rally could reach the 50-day simple moving average ($34,629). The downtrend could resume on a break below the $28,630 to $26,700 support zone.
The bears stalled Ether’s (ETH) relief rally at the 20-day EMA ($2,009) on May 31, indicating that they are not allowing the bulls to get a foothold.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will try to pull the price to the vital support at $1,700. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if it cracks, the ETH/USDT pair could witness panic selling. The pair could then resume its downtrend and plummet to $1,300.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $1,700, it will suggest that the bulls are proactively buying at these levels. The bulls will then again try to push the price above the 20-day EMA and challenge the stiff resistance at $2,159.
Binance Coin (BNB) rose above the immediate resistance of $320 on May 30 but the bulls have not been able to build upon this move. This indicates that bears are posing a strong challenge at $325.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The sellers have pulled the price to the uptrend line. This is an important level to keep an eye on in the near term. If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips. That could enhance the prospects of a break above $325.
Contrary to this assumption, if bears sink the price below the uptrend line, the BNB/USDT pair could drop to the strong support zone between $286 and $265. A break below $265 could send the pair tumbling to the vital support at $211.
Ripple (XRP) rose above the downtrend line on May 30 but the bulls could not clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA ($0.43). This suggests that bears are not willing to surrender their advantage.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will try to sink the price below the downtrend line. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair could decline to $0.38. The buyers are likely to defend this level and a bounce off it will point to a possible consolidation in the near term.
On the contrary, if the price rebounds off the downtrend line, it will suggest that bulls are attempting to flip this level to support. If that happens, the possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA increases. The pair could then rally to the psychological resistance at $0.50.
Cardano (ADA) broke above the 20-day EMA ($0.56) on May 30 and followed it up with another sharp up-move on May 31. This pushed the price to the 50-day SMA ($0.70) but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears are selling near this level.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will try to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA and trap the aggressive bulls. If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $0.44 where buying may emerge.
That could suggest a consolidation inside the large range between $0.44 and $0.74. The flattening 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) just below the midpoint also indicate a range-bound action in the near term.
The bulls may gain the upper hand if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA and breaks above $0.74. Such a move will suggest that the downtrend may be over.
Solana’s (SOL) relief rally is facing stiff resistance from the bears near the psychological level at $50. This suggests that bears have not yet given up and they continue to sell on rallies.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will try to pull the price to the strong support at $40. The bulls are expected to buy the dips to this level. If the price rebounds off this support, the buyers will again try to push the SOL/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($51). If they succeed, the pair could rally to $60 and thereafter attempt an up-move to the breakdown level of $75.
On the other hand, if bears sink the price below $40, the pair could drop to the May 12 intraday low of $37. The pair could resume its downtrend if bears pull the price below this crucial support.
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) price has been trading near the 20-day EMA ($0.09) for the past two days but the bulls have failed to achieve a breakout. This suggests that bears are defending the 20-day EMA with vigor.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will try to sink the price to the strong support at $0.07. This level has held on two previous occasions, hence the bulls will again try to defend it. If the price rebounds off this support, the DOGE/USDT pair may remain stuck inside a range between $0.10 and $0.07 for some time.
If bulls drive the price above $0.10, it will suggest that the downtrend could be weakening. The pair could then rally to $0.12. Conversely, the downtrend could resume on a break below $0.07.
Polkadot (DOT) is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($10.55) but the bulls have not allowed the price to sustain below $10. This suggests strong demand at lower levels.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $12. This level may act as a minor hurdle but if crossed, the recovery could reach the strong overhead resistance at $14.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and sustains below $10, the decline could extend to the strong support at $8. A strong bounce off this support will suggest that the pair may remain range-bound between $8 and $12 for some time.
Avalanche (AVAX) turned down from the downtrend line on May 31 suggesting that bears continue to defend the level with vigor. The bears will now try to pull the price below the strong support zone of $23.51 to $21.35.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair will complete a descending triangle pattern, indicating the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $20.
Although the downsloping 20-day EMA ($31.33) favors the bears, the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum may be weakening. If the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, buying could resume. The bulls will then try to propel the pair to $38.
Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) recovery is facing stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($0.000012) suggesting that the sentiment remains negative and bears are selling on rallies.
SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will try to pull the price to the strong support at $0.000010. This level is likely to attract aggressive buying by the bulls. If the price rebounds off $0.000010, the SHIB/USDT pair could rally toward the 20-day EMA.
If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to $0.000014 and later to the breakdown level of $0.000017. On the downside, the bears will have to sink the price below $0.000009 to signal the resumption of the downtrend.
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