Short-term hodlers may be done with the bulk of their panic selling, while the Mayer Multiple shows buying the dip has rarely been more profitable.
Bitcoin (BTC) could have already seen a price bottom or be “really close” to one, analysts believe eyeing new data this week.
In a Twitter thread on June 22, well-known indicator creator David Puell revealed what he argues “looks interesting” about current Bitcoin buying and selling.
“High likelihood” bottom is in
With many sources calling for BTC/USD to dip to $14,000 or lower, bullish takes on current price action are few and far between.
For Puell, however, dynamics between long-term (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs) hint that the situation is not necessarily as bearish as many fear.
Highlighting the cost basis for each group, Puell showed that those who have been in the market longer paid less as a whole for their BTC than recent investors.
With Bitcoin at multi-year lows, the pain thus lies with STHs more than LTHs. Capitulation selling from the former could thus have already expressed itself.
“imo, high likelihood we either had or are really close to a bottom,” popular analyst Root responded.
Correction:
LTH realized price: $22.2k.
STH realized price: $31.7k.https://t.co/1YEGkriVAJ
— David Puell (@dpuellARK) June 22, 2022
As Cointelegraph reported, however, even LTHs — defined as wallet entities holding coins for 155 days or more — have still been distributing to the market in recent weeks.
Mayer Multiple nears historical floor
Those looking for a profitable “buy the dip” opportunity on Bitcoin nonetheless may be in luck, according to another popular on-chain metric, the Mayer Multiple.
Related: Bitcoin price rises to $20.7K as Fed’s Powell says more rate hikes ‘appropriate’
As of June 22, the indicator, which shows how far below the 200-day moving average (DMA) current spot price is, is hinting that return on investment rarely gets better.
At 0.5, the Multiple is 50% below the 200 DMA, and has been lower just 2% of Bitcoin’s lifetime.
“Macro-economic conditions are different this time but good to keep an eye on,” crypto entrepreneur Kyle Chasse commented on the figures.
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple chart. Source: Glassnode
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